China's automobile exports are projected to rise to 10 million units in 2026, a significant increase from the 7.1 million units expected in 2025. These figures were revealed in a recent study released by the consultancy AlixPartners on June 30.
This full-year forecast aligns with growth trends observed in the first half of the year. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China exported 4.059 million vehicles in the first five months of 2026—a year-on-year increase of 63%. Of this total, new energy vehicle (NEV) exports reached 1.833 million units, more than doubling compared to the same period the previous year.
NEVs are rapidly becoming the primary engine driving exports. Data from the first five months shows that NEVs accounted for over 45% of total exports and demonstrated even faster growth, with their share approaching 50% in May alone. Effectively, one out of every two Chinese vehicles exported is an NEV. China has held the top spot globally for automobile exports for three consecutive years. Having surpassed Japan for the first time in 2023, retained the title in 2025 with 7.098 million units, and maintained strong momentum through the first five months of 2026, the industry generally anticipates that total exports for 2026 will exceed 10 million units. Some optimists even predict that, given the cyclical pattern of increased production and sales in the second half of the year, China's export volume could potentially reach 12 million units.